• We are getting closer to a point where we pause or halt cuts.
  • I think R* cannot be any reliable guide for monetary policy in real time.
  • Restriction has come down significantly, up to a point where we can no longer say with confidence that our policy is still restrictive.
  • Savings rate has started to come down.
  • Domestic inflation is still high.
  • Wage growth is still elevated.
  • We've seen new shocks to energy prices.
  • I would exclude a rate increase.
  • Services inflation should start to come down in February.
  • Many indications are that wage growth will decelerate.
ECB's Schnabel
ECB's Schnabel
Source: Forex Live