China is expected to keep its benchmark lending rates unchanged on Monday, marking a fourth straight month of stability despite the Federal Reserve’s move to cut rates last week. A Reuters survey of 20 analysts unanimously predicted no change, leaving the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.00% and the five-year at 3.50%.

While recent data points to slowing momentum in the Chinese economy, policymakers appear reluctant to roll out large-scale stimulus, with resilient exports and a rally in domestic equities reducing pressure for action. The People’s Bank of China last week left its seven-day reverse repo rate—the main policy rate—unchanged, reinforcing expectations that the LPR will remain steady.

Most lending in China is tied to the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate guides mortgage pricing. Both rates were last trimmed by 10 basis points in May.

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PBOC LPR Moves (2024–2025)

DateOne-year LPRFive-year LPRChangeNotes
May 20253.00%3.50%-10bpLatest cut; both 1Y and 5Y trimmed.
Feb 20243.45%3.95%-25bp (5Y only)Big mortgage-linked cut aimed at property sector support.
Aug 20233.45%4.20%-10bp (1Y), -15bp (5Y)Coordinated easing to counter weak growth.
Jun 20233.55%4.20%-10bp (1Y), -10bp (5Y)First LPR cut since Aug 2022.
Aug 20223.65%4.30%-5bp (1Y), -15bp (5Y)Targeted mortgage support.
Jan 20223.70%4.60%-10bp (1Y), -5bp (5Y)Part of early 2022 easing cycle.

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Source: Investing Live