Trafigura says US policy is the biggest upside risk for oil prices

Ben Luckock, head of oil trading at Trafigura Group spoke in a Bloomberg TV interview.

• biggest upside risk to crude prices in an otherwise well-supplied market is U.S. foreign policy toward Iran
• while U.S. trade relations with China are uncertain, Iran remains the key issue to watch.
• “Iran’s oil exports have surged in recent years, but the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House has created uncertainty”
• Trump’s previous "maximum pressure" policy on Tehran could see heightened pressure on the country again, and lead to market volatility if tensions escalate.

Despite these risks, global oil supply remains stable, which may help cushion the impact of any potential disruptions

Luckock also pointed to potential shifts in global oil flows, suggesting the U.S. could resume Russian oil imports before Europe if a deal over Ukraine is reached. He highlighted the growing shadow fleet of around 1,000 tankers transporting oil for Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, a key factor in global supply dynamics.

Weekly Brent candles ... bottom of the range for the past few years here.