Bitcoin (BTC) is staging a recovery today, trading with renewed volatility following a brutal start to the week. As of this writing on Tuesday, December 2, 2025, the world's leading cryptocurrency has rebounded over 1% from yesterday's lows, establishing a session high of $87,628.

However, this green candle masks a precarious technical reality. Yesterday, Bitcoin suffered its largest single-day decline since March, shedding over 6% in a liquidation event that caught late bulls off guard. While the price has found local support around $84,000, a level that served as a critical floor in late April, market structure suggests this may be a temporary reprieve rather than a reversal.

The collision of a technical "Death Cross," institutional "bull traps," and looming macroeconomic shifts suggests that Bitcoin may have one final, painful leg down to $74,000 before the true parabolic run to $130,000 begins in 2026.

In the background is also Saxo Bank’s “outrageous prediction,” which targets a level of zero on the BTC chart. Could analysts be right? I examine this in the article below.

Why is Bitcoin Falling? The Anatomy of a Bull Trap

To understand why is Bitcoin falling despite the broader bullish sentiment, we must look at the price action of late November. The rally observed toward the end of last month has now been confirmed as a classic "bull trap."

On November 28, Bitcoin price action painted a textbook bearish signal: a bearish pin bar candle formed precisely at the resistance zone I have been monitoring between $92,000 and $94,000. This rejection was the first domino. Since that failed breakout, the market has been in a steady decline, clearly reversing from those highs.

Currently, the support at $84,000 is holding, but the technical damage is significant. This level is likely functioning as a "pit stop" rather than a bottom. The breakdown was exacerbated by macroeconomic jitters, as noted by Paul Howard, Director at Wincent:

"The potential rate hike news from BoJ took many in the markets by surprise and led to a pulldown in risk assets generally overnight in Europe... Cryptocurrency continues to be the risk-on asset class and a bellwether of macro-economic events 24x7."

Along with Bitcoin, XRP also fell on Monday, which I wrote about here. For the cryptocurrency, it was the biggest drop in a month, and technical analysis shows room for a further 20% decline

Bitcoin Price Prediction And The Road to $74,000

My bearish case and Bitcoin price prediction for the immediate term is supported by two powerful technical indicators: the Fibonacci extension and the dreaded "Death Cross."

1. The Death Cross

The medium-term outlook has turned decidedly bearish due to a "Death Cross" formation on the daily chart, where the 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day moving average. Historically, this lagging indicator signals a period of momentum exhaustion and often precedes a deeper capitulation event to flush out leverage.

2. The $74,000 Target

While retail traders are hoping for a bounce at $84K, "Smart Money" appears to be waiting lower. My analysis points to $74,000 as the ultimate bearish objective. This level is critical for two reasons:

• Fibonacci Confluence: It aligns perfectly with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the recent correction wave.
• Liquidity: This zone represents a massive pool of uncollected liquidity. It is the "maximum pain" point where stop-losses from eager longs will be hunted.

Kamil Szczepański, Financial Markets Analyst at XTB, warns that losing the current levels could accelerate the drop:

"Bitcoin price is rebounding slightly after yesterday's almost 6% sell-off to $86.5K USD, but looking at two previous corrections in this bull market, we see that the tendency to 'retest lows' exists... A potential drop below $81,000 could trigger another strong sell impulse."

Szczepański highlights that breaking $81K risks falling below the Glassnode "True Market Mean," a historical indicator of entering a bearish phase.

The 2026 BTC Outlook: From Capitulation to $130,000

Despite the immediate bearish technicals, the long-term thesis remains aggressively bullish. I remain a "bull in bear's clothing." The anticipated drop to $74,000 is not the end of the cycle. It is a re-accumulation zone.

Order book data from major futures exchanges shows a dense "net" of buy orders waiting in the low $70K region. Large institutions are likely positioning to scoop up Bitcoin at these discounted prices after "the street" (retail investors) has capitulated.

My Prediction: Once the $74,000 test is complete, clearing out weak hands, we will likely see a V-shaped recovery in early 2026.

• Target 1: Reclaiming the All-Time High (ATH) of $126,000.
• Target 2: A breakout above $130,000 before the end of Q1 2026.

This bullish view is supported by the macro-constructive outlook of Joel Kruger, Crypto Strategist at LMAX Group:

"The macro backdrop is lending a supportive undertone, with markets leaning toward a Fed rate cut... A softer dollar is helping sustain risk appetite... Within the crypto ecosystem, attention is centered on ETF inflows, rising on-chain activity, and a rebound in stablecoin issuance, signals that institutional demand remains durable."

The "Black Swan": Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Bitcoin Prediction 2026

While technicals paint a picture of a correction followed by a rally, investors must always account for "tail risks." In their newly released "Outrageous Predictions 2026", Saxo Bank outlines a scenario that could upend the entire digital asset market: The Arrival of Q-Day.

Will Taylor Swifts wedding set off a global economic boom?👰‍♀️🤵‍♂️📈💰

This is only one of the outrageous predictions our strategists have made for 2026, and the full list is even wilder.

Each year Saxos strategy team reveals a new set of bold and thought provoking predictions that… pic.twitter.com/0026VM8Uke

— Saxo (@saxobank) December 2, 2025

Neil Wilson, Saxo’s UK Investor Strategist, hypothesizes a scenario where quantum computing breaks standard cryptography earlier than expected.

“Markets move first. Crypto is hit hardest. Old bitcoin addresses start to look vulnerable, prompting exchanges to freeze withdrawals as a rush for the exits turns into a stampede. Bitcoin collapses toward zero” – Wilson predicts.

• The Scenario: A quantum computer proves it can break today's digital security standards, rendering crypto wallets vulnerable.
• The Impact: In this "outrageous" prediction, Bitcoin collapses toward zero as trust in digital encryption evaporates. Investors rush for physical assets, sending Gold rocketing toward $10,000.
• The Outcome: A massive transfer of wealth from "digital gold" (Bitcoin) to "physical gold" and a global "maintenance weekend" to upgrade banking infrastructure.

While this is a low-probability event designed to provoke thought, it underscores the importance of diversification. If $74k holds, the path is to $130k. If quantum encryption breaks, the paradigm shifts entirely.

Patience is the Strategy

The market is currently punishing impatience. The rebound to $87,628 today is encouraging, but the technical structure warns of one final flush.

For traders and investors, the strategy is clear:

1. Watch $81,000: A break below this level validates the trip to $74k.
2. Wait for $74,000: This is the high-probability zone for institutional accumulation.
3. Target $130,000: Once the leverage is flushed, the Q1 2026 rally should be swift and violent.

As Paul Howard notes, even with short-term volatility and exploits, the "structural changes allowing institutional participation" are creating a healthy long-term landscape. The bull run isn't over; it's just shaking out the tourists before the next leg up.

Before you leave, please also check my previous BTC price prediction and follow my X for up-to-date analytical clues:

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Bitcoin Price Analysis, FAQ

How low can Bitcoin go?

Based on Fibonacci extensions and liquidity zones, the technical target for this correction is $74,000. However, a breakdown below $81,000 is the key confirmation signal needed for this move.

Why is Bitcoin falling today?

Bitcoin is facing a technical hangover from the "bull trap" set at $92,000 on November 28. The market is also digesting macroeconomic shifts, including BoJ rate hike fears and profit-taking after the November rally.

What is the Bitcoin price prediction for 2026?

Following the anticipated correction to $74,000, the forecast for Q1 2026 is bullish, with a target to break the previous All-Time High of $126,000 and surpass $130,000.

Is the crypto bull market over?

Likely not. Most analysts view this as a healthy correction within a broader uptrend. However, Saxo Bank warns of "outrageous" risks like Quantum Computing breakthroughs that could destabilize the market, though these remain low-probability "black swan" events.