• Neutral rate has come down to the bottom of end of estimates
  • Estimates of low neutral rate is based on forward looking estimates
  • Using backward looking data is misguided
  • Cost of housing is paramount in thinking
  • When you remove regulations it creates a positive output gap

He is really leaning on population changes for his thinking but the levels of immigration to the US weren't that material, especially compared to other western economies.

Source: Investing Live