Weaker data sends yields lower and USDJPY below MA support

The data out over the US today was mostly on the weakest side:

• Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing tumbled to -32.5 from -13.1 last month
• Consumer confidence came in at 92.9 versus 94.0 and 100.1 last month.
• New home sales came in about as expected
• Richmond Fed was lower at -4 versus +6 lastmonth

US yields which were higher across the curve earlier today are now mostly lower:

• 2-year yield 4.019%, -1.7 basis points
• 5-year yield 4.077%, -1.6 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.322%, -0.8 basis points
• 30 year yield 4.662%, +0.7 basis points

The USDJPY, already trading lower on the day, extended its losses further as U.S. yields declined and a key technical break added downside momentum. On the 4-hour chart, the pair fell below a key swing area between 150.11 and 150.28, and also dipped under the 200-bar moving average, currently around 150.00. This break below both technical and psychological support has shifted the near-term bias more firmly to the downside.

It's worth noting that just yesterday, the pair had climbed above the 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart for the first time since January 27, but that move proved unsustainable. As a result, the 150.00 level now acts as a key intraday resistance. Staying below it keeps sellers in control, and traders will be watching this level as a risk marker for short-term positioning.

To the downside, attention now turns to the 100-hour moving average at 149.48 (blue line on the hourly chart below). Just below that lies the 200-hour MA at 149.17 (green line below), which provided solid support on two separate occasions last Friday. A break below these hourly MAs would further solidify the bearish momentum and open the door for a deeper pullback.