January Canadian retail sales may show the calm before the storm; watch Feb advance data

Canadians largely ignored Trump's tariff and "51st state" threats until early February when the first round of tariffs were briefly imposed. Commentary from companies showed a sharp shift in sentiment starting then but today's retail sales report is for January and expected down 0.4% m/m following a +2.5% gain in December. The weather in the month was cold but Canadians can generally shrug that off.

The number to watch in this report will be the advance reading for February. That number isn't forecast by economists but it will be the market mover in today's report.

USD/CAD is trading at 1.4332 ahead of the report.