Gold Stumbles as US PMIs Shine Brighter

Fundamental Overview

Gold came under some pressure yesterday following the US Flash PMIs as the data showed a strong rebound from the prior month. That helped push aside growth fears for now although the risks remain with the market waiting for the tariffs plan announcement on April 2^nd.

In the bigger picture, as long as the Fed doesn’t change its reaction function and doesn’t mention rate hikes, the trend should remain to the upside as real yields will continue to fall unless we get another strong growth scare.

Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that gold continues to pull back from the highs. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the 2955 level where they will also find the trendline for confluence. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to target the 2832 level next.

Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 3020 level where the price got rejected from several times in the past days. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to extend the pullback into the 2955 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to regain conviction and pile in for a rally into a new all-time high.

Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break above the trendline and the resistance to regain some control and position for a rally into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we have the US Consumer Confidence report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE data.

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