S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Choppy price action amid general uncertainty

Fundamental Overview

The S&P 500 sold off yesterday following the higher than expected US CPI report. Stocks didn’t extend to new lows though as the market was aware of the “January-effect” and therefore didn’t put much weight on this particular release.

What weigh more on the market were the positive headlines on the reciprocal tariffs as the White House adviser Hassett said that the reciprocal tariffs were a work in progress and conversations with other countries began earlier that day, potentially implying negotiations.

Moreover, we got a very positive post from Trump saying that he had a call with Putin and the tone of it was upbeat on a peace deal in the Russia-Ukraine war. He was even invited to Moscow. That helped the risk sentiment and weighed on crude oil (less inflationary pressures).

Both of those news gave the market a boost and helped erasing the CPI losses. Today, the focus will be on the US PPI data and the potential announcement of reciprocal tariffs.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 has been stuck in a big range for almost four months now. The market participants will continue to play the range until we get a breakout on either side as that will likely increase the momentum and give us the next impulse.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a smaller range between the 5960 support and the 6150 resistance. This could be a signal that overall, the bullish view is more probable and that the buyers remain in control. Again, there’s not much we can say here as what we need is a breakout.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have yet another tighter range between the 6020 support and the 6095 resistance. The sellers will likely step in around the resistance to position for a drop back into the support, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the next resistance. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we get the US PPI, the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales data.