S&P 500 Technical Analysis – The market is flirting with a new all-time high

Fundamental Overview

The S&P 500 is back around the all-time highs after a strong rally triggered by the benign US PPI and the Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement.

In fact, despite a higher than expected US PPI report, the details that feed into the Core PCE index, which is what the Fed focuses on, were all very soft. That helped to bring the early estimates down to more benign levels. The Core PCE Y/Y is now projected to fall to 2.6% vs. 2.8% in the prior month. That’s good news for the Fed.

The bullish momentum increased eventually as the Trump’s tariffs saga came to an end. In fact, the US President announced his reciprocal tariffs that could go into effect in April but the overall tone of it wasn’t aggressive and sounded a lot like the start of a negotiating process to bring tariffs to a fair level for everyone.

We don’t have much on the agenda this week except the Flash US PMIs on Friday, but the path of least resistance remains to the upside as long as the disinflationary process continues without any growth scare.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 is trading around all-time highs. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in to position for a pullback into the 5961 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback into it, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 6020 level next.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a tight range between the all-time highs levels and the 6121 level. The buyers will look for a break higher to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Tomorrow, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude with the US Flash PMIs.