Gold Technical Analysis – Awaiting new catalysts

Fundamental Overview

Gold got stuck in a tight consolidation near the all-time highs as the market might be waiting for new catalysts for the next direction. For now, the market continues to move upwards by inertia amid a lack of bearish news for the precious metal.

Real yields remain in a bearish trend which is supportive for the gold market. We will likely need a strong growth scare to see some downside in gold or a hawkish Fed to trigger a bigger correction. For now, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

On Friday, we got the long-term inflation expectations in the Consumer Sentiment survey jumping to a new 30-year high. That might put the Fed in an uncomfortable position. The next NFP and CPI reports will be key for the markets.

Gold Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that gold is currently consolidating near the all-time highs. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the 2790 level, while the sellers will look for a break below the level to start targeting the 2600 level next.

Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have the major upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a tight range around the all-time highs. The buyers will likely keep on pushing into new highs as long as the price stays above the 2920 support, while the sellers will look for a break below the support to target a deeper pullback into the major trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today

Upcoming Catalysts

Tomorrow we have the US Consumer Confidence report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US PCE data.