A big debate in markets so far this year has been whether the real economy would 'catch down' to slumping measures of consumer and business confidence.

That debate might be over -- or at least on a break. The S&P PMIs are some of the most-comprehensive measures of business confidence and the survey of the service side bounced strongly in March despite non-stop tariff angst in the news. There are some concerns in the report like the troubling drop in optimism on the outlook to the 2nd lowest since 2022 but for now, businesses are taking a measured view.

US 10-year yields are nearing the top of the recent range and up 7 bps to 4.32%. That's lent a strong bid to USD/JPY as it rises above 150 and to the best levels since March 2. The 92-pip rally today has topped last week's high.

USDJPY daily
USD/JPY daily

I don't think there is any big signal in this data or the reports out of the White House on the weekend. It could all be upended with the next tweet but that's just the landscape of trading right now.

Ultimately, we have to wait until April 2 and deal with whatever comes.

Source: Forex Live