Oil Be There for You – Crude Prices Rise on Fresh Supply Disruptions and Better Data

Fundamental Overview

It’s been a rough quarter for crude oil as the market got hit by a wave of negative news. We had it all ranging from higher supply expectations to lower demand fears amid tariffs uncertainty and weakening economic data.

More recently, oil price started to climb as the US imposed fresh sanctions on Iranian oil on Friday. Trump has also threatened 25% tariffs on countries that buy Venezuelan oil yesterday.

This is all coming amid some better-than-expected US data which is helping to alleviate growth fears. In fact, yesterday we got a rebound in the US PMIs and again, the most cited reason for weaker sentiment is tariffs uncertainty.

The Trump’s April 2^nd “Liberation Day” could also mark a liberation from the uncertainty and improve market sentiment.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that crude oil broke above the downward trendline that was defining the bearish momentum. The buyers piled in on the break targeting the key 72.00 resistance zone. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into the 64.00 support with a better risk to reward setup.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we broke above a strong resistance zone around the 68.00 handle recently. That gave the buyers even more conviction to target new highs. If we get a retest of the resistance now turned support, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the 72.00 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling below the 68.00 support to regain control and target a drop into the 64.00 support.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to start targeting a drop below the 68.00 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we have the US Consumer Confidence report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE data.