NZDUSD Analysis: NZDUSD falls below key levels, Bearish outlook dominates

The NZDUSD is under pressure as selling momentum picks up following a failed attempt to reach the 38.2% retracement level at 0.5844 earlier this week. The inability to break higher, coupled with a drop below key moving averages, has shifted control to the sellers.

Key Technical Developments:

• Failure at 38.2% Retracement: The high for the week failed to reach 0.5844, signaling weak bullish momentum.
• Break of Last Week’s Swing High: The pair initially moved above last week’s highs but failed to sustain gains, leading to an increase in selling pressure.
• 100-Day MA Broken: The price is now trading below the 100-day moving average at 0.57425, a bearish technical development.
• Support at 100/200 Bar MA (4H Chart): The next downside target is the 100-bar and 200-bar MAs on the 4-hour chart, where buyers may look to step in again.
• 200-Bar MA Held Support Last Week: This level provided strong support last week, stalling declines twice.

Outlook:

• Bearish bias remains as long as the price stays below the 100-day MA at 0.57425 (close risk). Move back above and there could be some buying on the failure with the low from yesterday the next target at 0.57716.
• A move toward the 100/200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (around 0.57098 to 56983) is likely if sellers maintain control.
• If the price rebounds, resistance levels to watch are 0.5771 (broken 100-day MA) and 0.5817.

The technical picture suggests sellers are gaining the upper hand, but key moving averages below may offer a temporary reprieve for buyers. The last two tests of the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart stalled the fall during last weeks trading. That MA is at 0.56983