• The Canadian Unemployment Rate is seen edging higher in November.
  • Extra cooling of the labour market could reinforce additional rate cuts.
  • The Canadian Dollar maintains its recovery in place so far this week.

Statistics Canada will release its Labour Force Survey on Friday, and markets are bracing for a weak print. The Unemployment Rate is expected to tick higher to 7% in November, while the Employment Change is forecast to come in flat after a nice gain in October.

A weaker report could strengthen the case for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to continue its easing cycle next week after cutting its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% at its October 29 gathering, following the September rate reduction.

The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in late October; no surprises there. In addition, policymakers said they think rates are now roughly where they need to be to keep inflation near target while still giving the economy a bit of support as it works through the fallout from the US-driven trade war.

Markets do not expect the central bank to lower interest rates next week, while implied rates suggest a marginal tightening by the end of 2026.

What can we expect from the next Canadian Unemployment Rate print?

Consensus among market participants projects a slight rise in Canada’s Unemployment Rate to 7% last month, up from October’s 6.9%. Additionally, investors forecast the economy will add no jobs in November, reversing October’s 66.6K increase. It is worth recalling that Average Hourly Wages rose at an annualised 4% in October, pointing to sticky wage inflation.

According to analysts at TD Securities: “The November jobs report will provide the main risk for events this week, with TD and the market looking for the labour market to give back some recent strength as the unemployment rate edges higher to 7.0%.”

When is the Canada Unemployment Rate released, and how could it affect USD/CAD?

All eyes in Canada will be on Friday’s GDP release, due at 13:30 GMT. A stronger print could give the Canadian Dollar (CAD) a quick lift, but don’t expect fireworks.

USD/CAD has been on a steady decline almost entirely to the tune of the US Dollar (USD) lately, and that story is still all about the timing of further easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, points out that the CAD has clawed back a bit of ground since its lows late in the previous month, nudging USD/CAD back below the key 1.4000 support. He also notes that the technical setup still leans toward further losses if spot manages to clear its key 200-day SMA at 1.3913.

From here, Piovano says a return of bullish momentum could send USD/CAD up to test the November high at 1.4140 (November 5), and if that breaks, the next target would be the April peak at 1.4414 (April 1).

On the flip side, he highlights initial support at the December floor of 1.3925 (December 4), followed by that key 200-day SMA. A clean break lower would put the October base at 1.3887 (October 29) on the radar, ahead of the September trough at 1.3726 (September 17) and the July valley at 1.3556 (July 3).

“Momentum favours extra declines,” he adds, noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 40 and the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 21 suggests the underlying trend appears to be gathering traction.

Economic Indicator

Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM)

The Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change, released by Statistics Canada, reports the number of people receiving unemployment benefits in Canada. A smaller number than expectations (or a decrease in the number of beneficiaries) might be bullish for the CAD, while a bigger number than expected (or an increase in the number of beneficiaries) should be bearish for the Canadian dollar.

Read more.

Last release: Thu Nov 20, 2025 13:30

Frequency: Monthly

Actual: -1.1%

Consensus: -

Previous: 0.1%

Source: Statistics Canada

Bank of Canada FAQs

The Bank of Canada (BoC), based in Ottawa, is the institution that sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Canada. It does so at eight scheduled meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings that are held as required. The BoC primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at between 1-3%. Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Canadian Dollar (CAD) and vice versa. Other tools used include quantitative easing and tightening.

In extreme situations, the Bank of Canada can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the BoC prints Canadian Dollars for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker CAD. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The Bank of Canada used the measure during the Great Financial Crisis of 2009-11 when credit froze after banks lost faith in each other’s ability to repay debts.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of Canada purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the BoC stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Canadian Dollar.

Source: Fxstreet