What if the largest threat to global markets is not an oil price shock, but a prolonged conflict leading to a deeper US involvement in the war effort, with ultimate implications for defense spend and thereby for the fiscal outlook, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
Analyzing Risk of Disruptions to Strategic Chokepoints in the Middle East suggested crude oil pricing screened rich to historical analogs in the overnight session, TDS' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
The economic activity in the US' private sector continued to expand at a healthy pace in June, with the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index coming in at 52.8 (flash estimate), down slightly from 53 in May.
Recent geopolitical tensions, including US air strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, have heightened risks and impacted global markets.
Citing two US officials on Monday, Reuters reported that the US assesses a high risk of an Iranian retaliation against the US forces soon and added that the US is still pursuing a diplomatic resolution, per Reuters.
While testifying before the European Parliament on Monday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said that survey data point to some weaker prospects for economic activity in the near term, per Reuters.
Moneta Markets appears to be preparing to enter the proprietary trading space, with a newly posted executive job opening revealing plans for a dedicated prop trading firm.
Kevin Hassett, Director of the United States (US) National Economic Council (NEC), said on Monday that there is no reason for the Federal Reserve to not cut rates now.
The direction of oil prices this morning reflects the market’s cumulative view on what it deems to be the current level of risk regarding the Middle East crisis. Brent oil spiked higher at the open only to fall back to below levels traded towards the end of last week.
Gold prices are recovering during the US session on Monday, as escalating geopolitical tensions and shifts in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate narrative have led to a resurgence in bullish momentum.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is weak, down a sizeable 1.2% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and hitting fresh local lows while threatening a push to levels last seen in early April, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.
Pound Sterling (GBP) is weak and down 0.5% against the US Dollar (USD), a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.
The Euro (EUR) is weak, down 0.5% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 in an environment of broad-based USD strength, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) ended last week on a soft note amid rising geo-political tensions and has eased a little further over the weekend to trade back to near 1.38, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.
The EUR/GBP pair posts a fresh two-month high near 0.8575 during European trading hours on Monday. The cross trades broadly stable after the release of the preliminary United Kingdom (UK)/Eurozone Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI data for June.
US Dollar (USD) bearishness subsided a little last week, helped by the mildly hawkish outcome of the FOMC, and has receded further this morning as markets react to the US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities and concerns over potential Iranian responses, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborn
The US Dollar is trading with moderate gains against the Swiss Franc on Monday, but remains trapped within the last few days' trading range, as the 0.8200 level keeps holding bulls for now.The Greenback is appreciating against most of its main peers, but is failing to perform any significant advance
The Japanese Yen (JPY) kicks off the week under pressure, stretching its losing streak to a third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday.
AUD/USD is under pressure after failing to break resistance at 0.6545, with the pair now testing key support levels that could determine the next leg of its trend, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
Brent crude’s steep rally faces a key technical test as prices approach major resistance levels, with stretched momentum suggesting a possible near-term pullback, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
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