The USDCAD is trending higher in early U.S. trading, currently testing the 200-hour moving average MA (green line currently at 1.43619), a critical level for both buyers and sellers. Earlier today at day lows, buyers defended the 100-hour MA ( blue line at 1.4318), preventing further downside, giving them control of the short-term trend. However, upside momentum faces key resistance levels ahead.

Key Levels & Market Structure

  • Support Levels:

    • 100-hour MA (1.4318) held earlier, providing a base for buyers.
    • The weekly low coincided with a key value area (red box), reinforcing it as a strong support zone. That level comes in at 1.4268 and will remain a key level that if broken would increase the bearish bias.

  • Resistance Levels:

    • 200-hour MA (~1.4360) is the immediate hurdle; breaking above it would confirm further upside.
    • 1.4448 - 1.4471 (highlighted yellow zone) serves as a major resistance area where previous price action has struggled.

  • Moving Averages:

    • The 100-hour MA (blue line) is below the price, signaling short-term bullish momentum.
    • The 200-hour MA (green line) is being tested, and a break above it would strengthen the bullish case.t.

Outlook & Scenarios

  • Bullish Scenario:

    • A break above the 200-hour MA could trigger further upside, targeting 1.4448 - 1.4471.

  • Bearish Scenario:

    • If the price fails at the 200-hour MA, expect a pullback toward the 100-hour MA (1.4318).
    • A deeper decline could bring a retest of the value area low (red box), indicating potential weakness.

Conclusion

The bulls have regained control after buyers defended 1.4318, but they need a decisive break above 1.43619 to sustain upward momentum. Sellers had an opportunity earlier but failed to push the price lower, indicating a shift in sentiment. If the 200-hour MA holds as resistance, consolidation or another pullback could follow.

USDCAD
USDCAD technicals
Source: Forex Live