EURUSD Technical Analysis – Another failure at the key resistance

Fundamental Overview

The USD finally got a bit of a boost after the FOMC decision despite the central bank maintaining the status quo. In fact, the Fed kept rates steady, reduced the QT pace, revised growth lower and inflation higher, and kept the dot plot mostly unchanged.

Fed Chair Powell acknowledged the current uncertainty around Trump’s policies and the inflation outlook but confirmed that the economy remains healthy, and the Fed is in a good position to wait for more clarity.

The data remains in focus. The next key event is scheduled for Monday when we get the US Flash PMIs which coupled with the UMich inflation expectations triggered the growth scare last month.

On the EUR side, the market recently scaled back the rate cuts expectations following the news of more defence spending. The European yields spiked and boosted the Euro. Moreover, the ECB speakers have been coming a bit less dovish recently as they’ve been cautioning against cutting rates too fast.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that the EURUSD continues to get rejected at the 1.0938 resistance. The sellers will likely keep on defending that level and position for a pullback into the 1.06 handle, while the buyers will need the price to break higher to gain more conviction and pile in for a rally into the 1.12 handle next.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the pair has been losing momentum recently. The first support should be around the 1.0767 level where the momentum started to wane. That’s where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally into the 1.12 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.06 handle next.

EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor support around the 1.0820 level where the price got rejected from several times in the past days. On an intraday basis, the buyers will likely step in here with a defined risk below the level to position for a pullback into the downward trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 1.0767 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.