USDCHF Technical Analysis – The USD bounced back on new tariffs headlines

Fundamental Overview

The USD has been stronger since last Friday as Trump floated reciprocal tariffs. That came after a good US NFP report where the data was mixed at best but still pointing to strength. The jump in average hourly earnings caught the eye but that might have been distorted by the drop in average weekly hours.

We’ve also got another jump in inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey showing that the tariffs news is the main culprit of the recent surge in expectations.

The focus now switched to the US CPI report tomorrow where Core inflation is expected to tick lower which would be a welcome news. A lower than expected print should see the US Dollar losing ground across the board once again, while a hot reading might boost the greenback for the rest of the week.

On the CHF side, nothing has changed for now. As a reminder, the SNB cut interest rates by 50 bps at the last policy meeting bringing the policy rate to 0.50% and dropping the language signalling further cuts in the coming quarters.

This suggests that the central bank will likely slow the pace of easing which is something that the market was already expecting with roughly two 25 bps cuts priced in for this year. The recent Swiss CPI didn’t change much for the central bank as the data came basically in line with expectations.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF eventually bounced off of the major trendline and extended the rally into the 0.91 handle. The buyers will continue to target the 0.92 handle next, while the sellers will want to see the price breaking below the major trendline to gain conviction and start targeting new lows.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum. The buyers will likely lean on it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to position for a drop into the major trendline.

USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the buyers will look for a bounce on the trendline, while the sellers will look for a break lower. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

Today we have the Fed Chair Powell Testimony. Tomorrow, we get the US CPI report. On Thursday, we have the Swiss CPI, the US PPI and the US Jobless Claims. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales.