The USD is lower vs all the major currencies to start the trading day and one day ahead of the FOMC rate decision. Trump nominee for FOMC board Stephen Miran was approved and will participate in the FOMC rate decision culminating with the decision at 2 PM tomorrow. The expectations is that he would dissent for a larger cut than the expected 25 basis points. Miran has also advocated for the benefits of the US dollar moving lower for manufacturing. That may be a little bit of what were seen in trading today.

The EURUSD is stretching toward the lowest level since 2021.The pair is up (lower USD) by about 0.40%. The greenback is also lower vs the GBP and JPY. The video above will outline the key technicals for those 3 currencies versus the greenback, and outline the risks and targets for each.

From the ECB, the central banker Scicluna said there is no pre-set plan for a rate cut in October or December, stressing that the Council has not discussed such a move. He noted that if conditions remain balanced by December, no action would be taken, warning against cutting rates based on risks that may not materialize and cautioning that easing again without a clear justification would be “tempting fate.”. Earlier, ECB’s Villeroy said French growth is too weak but still positive, stressing the need to seriously address the debt problem through spending restraint and higher taxes. He added there is no reason for France to fall behind as Europe’s laggard.

On the economic calendar in Europe, the EU and German ZEW economic survey's came in higher than expectations. Industrial production in the EU was slightly worse than expectations. Below is a summary of the data released during the European morning session.

  • UK Average Earnings Index (3m/y): 4.7% (vs 4.7% forecast, 4.6% previous) → In line with expectations

  • UK Claimant Count Change: +17.4K (vs +15.3K forecast, -33.3K previous) → Worse than expected

  • UK Unemployment Rate: 4.7% (vs 4.7% forecast, 4.7% previous) → In line with expectations

  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment: 37.3 (vs 25.3 forecast, 34.7 previous) → Better than expected

  • Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m): +0.3% (vs +0.4% forecast, -0.6% previous) → Slightly worse than expected

  • Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment: 26.1 (vs 20.3 forecast, 25.1 previous) → Better than expected

In a CNBC interview this morning (in the US), Treasury Sec. Bessent said the Fed remains behind the curve (not surprising) but expects inflation to ease, with markets pricing 75 bps of cuts by year-end. He voiced confidence the Supreme Court will uphold tariffs, sees China open to a deal after the Trump–Xi meeting, and downplayed the NVIDIA probe as unrelated to talks. On TikTok, he noted Trump is willing to let it go dark, though terms are largely set pending China’s approval. He described the labor market as balanced with productivity gains from AI.

US stocks are higher in premarket trading. Oracle shares are trading up 5.11% after being linked to a Tik-Tok deal. Yesterday the shares rose 3.41%. Recall from last week after earnings which projected sharply higher expectations going forward, the stock price reached $345.72. Over the next few days the price corrected down to a low of $291.75 before bouncing back higher yesterday. And in premarket trading today the current price is trading at $370.65. There is room to room.

Tesla shares which rose by 3.56% yesterday and has been on a tear since breaking above resistance at $367.71 is trading up another $4.51 or 1.10% in premarket trading (see post on Tesla

Source: Investing Live