UK March flash services PMI 53.2 vs 50.9 expected

• Services PMI 53.2 vs 50.9 expected vs. 51.0 prior
• Manufacturing PMI 44.6 vs 46.4 expected vs. 46.9 prior
• Composite PMI 52.0 vs 50.3 expected and 50.5 prior.

Key findings:

• Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index at 6-month high.
• Flash UK Services PMI Business Activity Index at 7-month high.
• Flash UK Manufacturing Output Index at 17-month low.
• Flash UK Manufacturing PMI at 18- month low.

Comment:

Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

“An upturn in business activity in March brings some good news for the government ahead of the Chancellor’s Spring Statement, offering a respite from the recent flow of predominantly downbeat economic data. However, just as one swallow does not a summer make, one good PMI doesn’t signal a recovery.

“The signal from the flash PMI is an economy eking out a modest expansion in March, consistent with quarterly GDP growth of just 0.1%, but with employment continuing to be cut thanks to concern over costs and the uncertain outlook. Confidence is still running close to January’s two-year low.

“The improvement is also being driven by only small pockets of growth, notably in financial services, with consumer-facing business and manufacturers continuing to struggle against headwinds both at home and abroad.

“These headwinds include the additional costs imposed on businesses in the Budget, low confidence among businesses and households, and sluggish demand at home and abroad, the latter linked to heightened geopolitical uncertainty resulting from US tariff policies.

“Worryingly, these headwinds are likely to grow in force as higher National Insurance contributions come into effect in April, coinciding with the anticipated review of US tariff policy on 2nd April, the latter having the potential to further subdue global economic growth and dampen UK trade.”