The USD is little changed with the biggest mover vs the close being the GBP with a decline of around 0.15%. Looking at the USD move vs. the major currencies, the changes are minimal:

  • EUR -0.10%
  • JPY -0.11%
  • GBP -0.14%
  • CHF +0.09%
  • CAD +0.03%
  • AUD -0.08%
  • NZD +0.10.

In the video above, I take a look at the technicals driving the big three – the EURUSD, USDJPY and the GBPUSD. What is the bias? Remember in the US dollar did rise sharply versus the major currencies yesterday. What are the risks? What are the targets? I will go through each currency pair with a focus on those key trader levels.

Today, US PPI data will be released. Yesterday the CPI data came in about as expected but there were hints of inflation from tariffs in the core goods data that imply the creep higher has begun. That sent yields higher with the 30 year yield moving back above 5% and the 10 year yield approaching 4.5%, and the dollar to the upside.

The PPI data will help number crunchers to get a better feel on the Fed's favored measure of inflation the core PCE. After the CPI, the expectation was for a gain of 0.35% for that key measure. What will the data today do to that estimate?. Expectations are for the month-to-month to rise by 0.2% for the headline and for the ex-food and energy. The final demand year on year is expected at 2.5% (versus 2.6% last month), while the core is expected at 2.7% (versus 3.0% last month)

The earnings release is continue to this morning, after a pretty good start yesterday although the markets took most of the stocks lower (i.e BlackRock, J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo). Yesterday the Dow industrial average fell by -0.98%, the S&P fell by -0.40%, but the NASDAQ rose by 0.18%. All three closed near session lows however.

Looking at the earnings released this morning, more financials reported along with J&J (a Dow stock):

  • Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS $2.13 (BEAT; exp. $1.95), Revenue $16.8B (BEAT; exp. $15.93B)

  • Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS $10.91 (BEAT; exp. $9.51), Revenue $14.58B (BEAT; exp. $13.48B); raises quarterly dividend to USD 4/shr

  • Bank of America Corp (BAC) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS $0.89 (BEAT; exp. $0.85), Revenue $26.5B (MISS; exp. $26.75B)

  • PNC Financial (PNC) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS $3.85 (BEAT; exp. $3.54), Revenue $5.66B (BEAT; exp. $5.61B)

  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS $2.77 (BEAT; exp. $2.66), Revenue $23.74B (BEAT; exp. $22.90B); raises outlook

Economic data released in the in session showed UK inflation surprises to the upside in June:

  • Headline CPI rose to 3.6% y/y (exp. 3.4%, prev. 3.4%)

  • Core CPI climbed to 3.7% y/y (exp. 3.5%)

  • Services inflation held firm at 4.7% (exp. 4.6%)

This hotter-than-expected report could pressure the Bank of England to delay rate cuts as inflation proves sticky across core and services categories.

The premarket levels for US stocks, the futures are implying:

  • Dow industrial average
  • S&P index
  • NASDAQ index

Looking at the US debt market, yields are little changed but lower:

  • 2-year yield 3.952%, -0.6 basis points
  • 5-year yield 4.045%, -0.7 basis points
  • 10 year yield 4.483%, -0.4 basis points
  • 30 year yield by .016%, -0.1 basis points
Source: Forex Live