What are the main events for today?

In the European session we don't have much on the agenda with the German IFO as the only highlight. The IFO index is similar to the German Composite PMI as they are correlated, so it will likely surprise to the upside but overall shouldn't change much for the market.

In the American session, the main highlight will be the US Consumer Confidence report as consumer surveys have been really plunging in the recent months with tariffs uncertainty often cited as the main reason.

14:00 GMT/10:00 ET - US March Consumer Confidence

The US Consumer Confidence is expected at 94.0 vs. 98.3 prior. The last report showed Consumer Confidence posting the largest decline since August 2021.

Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board said: “This is the third consecutive month on month decline, bringing the Index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022. Of the five components of the Index, only consumers’ assessment of present business conditions improved, albeit slightly.”

“Views of current labour market conditions weakened. Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a ten-month high”.

Guichard added: “Average 12-month inflation expectations surged from 5.2% to 6% in February. This increase likely reflected a mix of factors, including sticky inflation but also the recent jump in prices of key household staples like eggs and the expected impact of tariffs.”

Central bank speakers:

• 09:00 GMT/05:00 ET - ECB's Kazimir (hawk - voter)
• 12:40 GMT/08:40 ET - Fed's Kugler (dove - voter)
• 13:05 GMT/09:05 ET - Fed's Williams (neutral - voter)