NZDUSD backs off after run higher yesterday & today stalls ahead of retracement target

Last week, the NZDUSD found support twice at its 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, giving buyers the confidence to push higher. Yesterday, the pair broke above its 100-day moving average at 0.57464, accelerating the upside move. This breakout cleared key resistance levels, including the February 21 high at 0.57716 and the swing area at 0.5796.

However, buyers were unable to extend gains toward the 38.2% retracement of the September 2024 high to the February 2025 low, which sits at 0.5844. Today’s high stalled at 0.5830 before pulling back, with the price now testing swing area support at 0.5796—a key short-term level for traders.

If support holds HERE, another push higher toward today’s high and potentially 0.5844 could be in play. However, a break below 0.5796 may lead to further downside, with 0.57716 as the next key support target.

Ultimately, a break above the 38.2% retracement is needed to show that the buyers can take back control from the sellers. Absent that and the move higher is a corrective move within a more bearish longer-term technical picture.