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USD/JPY: Watching the 150 line in the sand – OCBC
USD/JPY: Watching the 150 line in the sand – OCBC
Sanae Takaichi was elected as the leader at the LDP election on 4 October, in a run-off vote after none of the 5 candidates won a majority in the first round. She is expected to be appointed the next PM after the vote in parliament, scheduled on 15 October.
USDJPY
Technical Analysis
Banks
BOJ
NZD/USD: Likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.5805/0.5840 – UOB Group
NZD/USD: Likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.5805/0.5840 – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.5805/0.5840. In the longer run, NZD has likely moved into a 0.5770/0.5865 range-trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
NZDUSD
Technical Analysis
Banks
Nikkei 225 breaks higher, targets 49,300 – Société Générale
Nikkei 225 breaks higher, targets 49,300 – Société Générale
The Nikkei 225 has surged past its September high with an upward gap, reinforcing bullish momentum. While the move appears stretched, there are no clear signs of a meaningful correction, Société Générale's FX analysts note, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
Banks
Equities
Technical Analysis
Nikkei
AUD/USD: Any decline is likely part of a lower range of 0.6580/0.6620 – UOB Group
AUD/USD: Any decline is likely part of a lower range of 0.6580/0.6620 – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) may edge lower; any decline is likely part of a lower range of 0.6580/0.6620. In the longer run, AUD remains neutral but is now expected to trade in a narrower range of 0.6555/0.6640AUD remains neutral but is now expected to trade in a narrower range of 0.6555/0.6640.
AUDUSD
Banks
Technical Analysis
EUR/JPY breaks 2024 highs, momentum accelerates – Société Générale
EUR/JPY breaks 2024 highs, momentum accelerates – Société Générale
EUR/JPY has surged past its 2024 and September highs, confirming renewed bullish momentum. A short-term pullback toward 175.00/174.70 could attract buyers, keeping the broader uptrend intact with upside targets at 177.60 and 178.80, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
Banks
EURJPY
Technical Analysis
USD: Resilient, but still facing downside risks – ING
USD: Resilient, but still facing downside risks – ING
Weekend news suggests very little progress towards ending the US government shutdown, which means further delays in government-issued data. This will probably be another abnormal week in FX, with the pause in most data releases meaning an outsized focus on other macro news.
DollarIndex
Banks
Technical Analysis
Fed
JPY: What Takaichi's victory means for the JPY – Commerzbank
JPY: What Takaichi's victory means for the JPY – Commerzbank
Sanae Takaichi won the leadership election of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) over the weekend.
USDJPY
Banks
Japan
BOJ
Technical Analysis
EUR: Rangebound activity may continue – ING
EUR: Rangebound activity may continue – ING
EUR/USD has struggled to find a catalyst for a big break higher – i.e., above 1.180 – despite some accumulation of negative US news. The bar to sell dollars appears higher, and the euro is lacking a highly compelling idiosyncratic story, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
EURUSD
Banks
Technical Analysis
ECB
GBP/USD may decline toward 1.3400 – UOB Group
GBP/USD may decline toward 1.3400 – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) may decline toward 1.3400; a clear break below this level appears unlikely. In the longer run, GBP is likely to trade in a range between 1.3360 and 1.3525, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
GBPUSD
Banks
Technical Analysis
DXY: 2-way trades on the daily chart – OCBC
DXY: 2-way trades on the daily chart – OCBC
There are still no Federal data releases due to US government shutdown. This puts emphasis on private sector data and Fedspeaks. DXY last seen at 98.43 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
DollarIndex
Banks
Technical Analysis
Fed
EUR/USD ticks up from lows with France's political crisis weighing
EUR/USD ticks up from lows with France's political crisis weighing
EUR/USD has returned to levels above 1.1670 ahead of the US session opening but remains way below the 1.1730 session highs reached during Monday's Asian session.
EURUSD
Currencies
Technical Analysis
SEO
EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Euro plunges below 0.8690 on Lecornu’s resignation
EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Euro plunges below 0.8690 on Lecornu’s resignation
The Euro has extended its reversal from Friday’s highs at 0.8730 to levels below the 0.8690 support area.
EURGBP
Currencies
Technical Analysis
Crosses
USD/CAD Price Forecast: Hovers around 1.3950, lower boundary of ascending channel
USD/CAD Price Forecast: Hovers around 1.3950, lower boundary of ascending channel
USD/CAD remains subdued for the second successive session, trading around 1.3950 during the European hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the weakening of the bullish bias as the pair is attempting to break below the ascending channel pattern.
USDCAD
Majors
Technical Analysis
European stocks open mostly little changed to kick start the new week
European stocks open mostly little changed to kick start the new week
French stocks are lagging as the new government takes office though
Gold stretches into yet another all-time high amid lack of bearish catalysts
Gold stretches into yet another all-time high amid lack of bearish catalysts
Gold continues to drift higher by inertia amid lack of bearish catalysts with the US government shutdown delaying key US economic data
Eurostoxx futures +0.1% in early European trading
Eurostoxx futures +0.1% in early European trading
Light changes as we look to the open later
FX option expiries for 6 October 10am New York cut
FX option expiries for 6 October 10am New York cut
A look at what is on the board for today
Options
Forex
SNB needs to find alternative solutions to address Swiss franc strength - BofA
SNB needs to find alternative solutions to address Swiss franc strength - BofA
BofA argues that the traditional approach won't cut it for the SNB as they are now stuck between a rock and a hard place
EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Reaches fresh all-time highs above 176.00
EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Reaches fresh all-time highs above 176.00
EUR/JPY opened at a gap-up, extending its gains and trading around 176.20 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates strengthening of a bullish bias as the currency cross has broken above the ascending channel pattern.
EURJPY
Crosses
Technical Analysis
Reserve Bank of New Zealand NZIER Shadow Board calls for 25bp interest rate cut
Reserve Bank of New Zealand NZIER Shadow Board calls for 25bp interest rate cut
The NZIER Shadow Board urged the RBNZ to cut the OCR again in October, mostly by 25bp, citing economic slack and subdued inflation.
RBNZ
NZD
Apple downgrade cites inflated iPhone & 18 Fold hopes. Jefferies: Apple to Underperform.
Apple downgrade cites inflated iPhone & 18 Fold hopes. Jefferies: Apple to Underperform.
iPhone 17’s strength stems from price cuts rather than innovation. Can a US$2,000 “iPhone 18 Fold” achieve meaningful volume? DCF model values Apple at US$205 per share—about US$800 billion below current levels.
SPX
Nasdaq
Takaichi victory cools BOJ hike odds, rate path stays cautious
Takaichi victory cools BOJ hike odds, rate path stays cautious
Sanae Takaichi’s victory as Japan’s incoming prime minister is expected to postpone, but not derail, Bank of Japan rate hikes. Her pro-Abenomics stance and preference for fiscal stimulus point to a cautious approach to monetary tightening, likely pushing the next rate increase to early 2026.
Nikkei
Politics
JPY
Newsquawk Week Ahead: FOMC and ECB mins, RBNZ, Canada jobs, OPEC+, Japan LDP election
Newsquawk Week Ahead: FOMC and ECB mins, RBNZ, Canada jobs, OPEC+, Japan LDP election
Next week highlights include the minutes from the FOMC and ECB meetings, the RBNZ rate decision, and the Canadian labour market report. Over the weekend, the Japan LDP Leadership election and OPEC+ meeting will take focus.
BOC
JPY
ECB
EUR
Fed
RBNZ
CAD
NZD
USD
EUR/USD steadies as Fed divide offsets shutdown drag
EUR/USD steadies as Fed divide offsets shutdown drag
EUR/USD consolidates on Friday amid a quiet trading session due to the lack of a fresh catalyst, sponsored by a US government shutdown that seems poised to extend beyond the current week. The pair trades at 1.1738, up 0.28%, at the time of writing.
EURUSD
Technical Analysis
Fed
Fundamental Analysis
SEO
Dow industrial average and S&P close at new record levels.
Dow industrial average and S&P close at new record levels.
NASDAQ is lower after closing at a record level yesterday. Major indices rise for the week.
Gold climbs as shutdown fuels haven demand, eyes record high
Gold climbs as shutdown fuels haven demand, eyes record high
Gold price advances during the North American session on Friday, up by 0.70% for the day as the US government shutdown extends to three days, poised to end the week positively for the seventh straight week. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,882 after hitting a daily low of $3,838.
Gold
XAUUSD
Technical Analysis
Fundamental Analysis
SEO
European indices close mostly higher and with solid gains for the week
European indices close mostly higher and with solid gains for the week
German DAX of 2.68% for the week despite a decline -0.18% today
EURUSD Technicals: EURUSD buyers are making a play but there has been a limit so far
EURUSD Technicals: EURUSD buyers are making a play but there has been a limit so far
The 100 and 200 hour MA at converged 1.1733 is the risk and bias level for buyers and sellers. Staying above is more bullish. Move below is more bearish. Work to do on the topside.
EUR
USD
GBP/USD rises as US shutdown prolongs, Fed data gap grows
GBP/USD rises as US shutdown prolongs, Fed data gap grows
The Pound Sterling (GBP) advances some 0.26% against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as the US government began its third day of shutdown and skipped the release of Nonfarm Payroll figures for September.
GBPUSD
Majors
Technical Analysis
Fundamental Analysis
Currencies
Lagarde says 'we are in a good place' on rates
Lagarde says 'we are in a good place' on rates
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde suggests a pause
Broker Rebates