Sanae Takaichi was elected as the leader at the LDP election on 4 October, in a run-off vote after none of the 5 candidates won a majority in the first round. She is expected to be appointed the next PM after the vote in parliament, scheduled on 15 October.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.5805/0.5840. In the longer run, NZD has likely moved into a 0.5770/0.5865 range-trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The Nikkei 225 has surged past its September high with an upward gap, reinforcing bullish momentum. While the move appears stretched, there are no clear signs of a meaningful correction, Société Générale's FX analysts note, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
Australian Dollar (AUD) may edge lower; any decline is likely part of a lower range of 0.6580/0.6620. In the longer run, AUD remains neutral but is now expected to trade in a narrower range of 0.6555/0.6640AUD remains neutral but is now expected to trade in a narrower range of 0.6555/0.6640.
EUR/JPY has surged past its 2024 and September highs, confirming renewed bullish momentum. A short-term pullback toward 175.00/174.70 could attract buyers, keeping the broader uptrend intact with upside targets at 177.60 and 178.80, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
Weekend news suggests very little progress towards ending the US government shutdown, which means further delays in government-issued data. This will probably be another abnormal week in FX, with the pause in most data releases meaning an outsized focus on other macro news.
EUR/USD has struggled to find a catalyst for a big break higher – i.e., above 1.180 – despite some accumulation of negative US news. The bar to sell dollars appears higher, and the euro is lacking a highly compelling idiosyncratic story, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
Pound Sterling (GBP) may decline toward 1.3400; a clear break below this level appears unlikely. In the longer run, GBP is likely to trade in a range between 1.3360 and 1.3525, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
There are still no Federal data releases due to US government shutdown. This puts emphasis on private sector data and Fedspeaks. DXY last seen at 98.43 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
EUR/USD has returned to levels above 1.1670 ahead of the US session opening but remains way below the 1.1730 session highs reached during Monday's Asian session.
USD/CAD remains subdued for the second successive session, trading around 1.3950 during the European hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the weakening of the bullish bias as the pair is attempting to break below the ascending channel pattern.
EUR/JPY opened at a gap-up, extending its gains and trading around 176.20 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates strengthening of a bullish bias as the currency cross has broken above the ascending channel pattern.
iPhone 17’s strength stems from price cuts rather than innovation. Can a US$2,000 “iPhone 18 Fold” achieve meaningful volume? DCF model values Apple at US$205 per share—about US$800 billion below current levels.
Sanae Takaichi’s victory as Japan’s incoming prime minister is expected to postpone, but not derail, Bank of Japan rate hikes. Her pro-Abenomics stance and preference for fiscal stimulus point to a cautious approach to monetary tightening, likely pushing the next rate increase to early 2026.
Next week highlights include the minutes from the FOMC and ECB meetings, the RBNZ rate decision, and the Canadian labour market report. Over the weekend, the Japan LDP Leadership election and OPEC+ meeting will take focus.
EUR/USD consolidates on Friday amid a quiet trading session due to the lack of a fresh catalyst, sponsored by a US government shutdown that seems poised to extend beyond the current week. The pair trades at 1.1738, up 0.28%, at the time of writing.
Gold price advances during the North American session on Friday, up by 0.70% for the day as the US government shutdown extends to three days, poised to end the week positively for the seventh straight week. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,882 after hitting a daily low of $3,838.
The 100 and 200 hour MA at converged 1.1733 is the risk and bias level for buyers and sellers. Staying above is more bullish. Move below is more bearish. Work to do on the topside.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) advances some 0.26% against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as the US government began its third day of shutdown and skipped the release of Nonfarm Payroll figures for September.
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