Gold prices tested record highs above $4,380 per ounce in mid-October 2025 before correcting approximately 11%, dropping below the psychological $4,000 threshold. Today (Thursday), 6 November 2025, the price is rising 0,8% and moving back above the important resistance.

Despite the recent pullback, major financial institutions, including UBS, ING, and Goldman Sachs, maintain aggressively bullish gold price predictions, with targets ranging from $4,200 to an extraordinary $5,600 per ounce.

In this article, I address why gold has been falling in recent weeks, how far it may rebound, and provide a technical analysis of the XAU/USD chart, based on more than ten years of experience as a retail investor and analyst.

Why Gold Is Falling? Technical Rather Fundamental Factors

The current correction reflects technical factors rather than fundamental weakness, according to Sagar Khandelwal from UBS Global Wealth Management who stated: "Outside technical factors, we see no fundamental reason for the sell-off".

The November 2025 pullback below $4,000 stems from multiple temporary pressures converging simultaneously.

Profit-taking dominated trading after gold's meteoric rise to $4,381 in October, with traders systematically locking in gains accumulated during the 47% year-to-date rally. The U.S. Dollar Index surged to its highest levels since mid-2024, making gold more expensive for international buyers and triggering automatic selling. Federal Reserve officials hinted at a "higher for longer" interest rate stance, temporarily reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

Gold Price Correction Metrics

UBS noted that "fading price momentum triggered a second leg down in futures open interest," but emphasized underlying demand remains exceptionally strong. The correction was accompanied by short-term ETF withdrawals following record Q3 inflows of $24 billion. However, ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey characterized the decline as "healthy rather than a trend reversal".

Gold traded at $4,016.85 per ounce on November 6, 2025, showing signs of stabilization.

How High Can Gold Price Go?

My Own Technical Analysis Targets $5,600

After testing historical highs in mid-October just below $4,400, gold corrected to levels that align with critical technical support zones. The precious metal has found strong support around $3,800-$3,900 per ounce, a zone determined by local lows combined with the 50-day exponential moving average.

My technical picture suggests two distinct scenarios. If the $3,800-$3,900 support zone fails to hold, the next major support lies at $3,270-$3,440 per ounce, the consolidation range observed from April through late August 2025, where the 200-day EMA also resides, separating downtrend from uptrend territory.

However, applying Fibonacci extension analysis to the trend from August's local low through October's correction reveals significantly bullish potential. The 100% Fibonacci extension points to $5,000 per ounce in the long term, aligning with targets from Goldman Sachs and other major institutions.

More remarkably, the 161.8% extension level falls at $5,600, representing potential upside of over 40% from current levels.

UBS Maintains Bullish Conviction Despite Pullback

Switzerland's banking giant UBS published a comprehensive research note on November 3, 2025, reassuring investors that gold's trajectory remains intact. "The current pullback in the gold market is only temporary, and the yellow metal's price is still on track to reach $4,200 per ounce, with an upside scenario of intensifying geopolitical or market risks driving it as high as $4,700," according to UBS analysts.

The institution explicitly stated: "The much-anticipated correction has taken a breather. Outside technical factors, we see no fundamental reason for the sell-off". UBS strategist Sagar Khandelwal elaborated on October 20, 2025: "Lower real interest rates, a weaker dollar, rising government debt, and geopolitical turmoil could push the yellow metal to $4,700 per ounce by Q1 2026, and mining stocks will do even better".

Perhaps most tellingly, UBS recommended aggressive positioning: "We like to buy the dip in gold," the analysts said, adding that investors "remain underallocated" to the metal. The bank suggests a mid-single-digit allocation to gold within investor portfolios, arguing that while volatility may increase, gold remains a valuable component of a resilient investment strategy.

ING: Fundamentals Point to Further Upside

ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey published an equally optimistic outlook on November 5, 2025, emphasizing structural demand factors. "Despite the recent pullback in prices, we remain positive on our gold outlook, with macro tailwinds and fundamentals pointing to further upside in 2026," Manthey wrote.

She highlighted that key supports remain intact: "Key supports, including central bank and haven demand, remain in place. ETF buying should also resume as the US Federal Reserve is likely to continue cutting interest rates". ING expects rates traders see better than 70% odds for an interest-rate cut in December, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

ING's specific price forecasts show confidence in gold's near-term trajectory: "We expect gold's downside to be limited and see prices averaging $4,000/oz this quarter and $4,100/oz in 1Q next year, although short-term volatility could remain in place". Crucially, Manthey characterized current weakness as opportunity: "We view the correction as healthy rather than a trend reversal, with any further weakness likely to attract renewed interest from both retail and institutional buyers".

You can also check my previous gold and silver price predictions articles here:

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Major Institutional Gold Price Predictions 2025-2026 Table

Record Demand Fundamentals Contradict Price Weakness

Global gold demand hit an unprecedented 1,313 tonnes in Q3 2025, the strongest quarterly total on record, according to the World Gold Council. This surge was driven by exceptional investment demand through exchange-traded funds, bars and coins, plus significant central bank buying.

ETF investors added 222 tonnes of gold holdings in Q3, marking the biggest quarterly inflow in years and representing a staggering 134% increase year-over-year. In value terms, the quarter brought a record $24 billion in gold ETF inflows. Year-to-date, gold ETF inflows reached 619 metric tons valued at $64 billion, with North America leading at 346 metric tons, followed by Europe at 148 metric tons.

Bar and coin demand remained robust at 316 tonnes in Q3, demonstrating strong retail investor appetite despite record prices. Total investment demand for gold in Q3 2025 reached 537.2 metric tons, up 13% over Q2 and 47% from Q3 in the previous year.

Jewellery demand declined 19% year-over-year to 371 tonnes as high prices curbed consumption volumes. However, in value terms, spending on jewellery actually rose 13% to $41 billion, with higher prices offsetting weaker volumes—demonstrating gold's maintained purchasing power.

Gold Prices, FAQ

Why is gold falling right now in November 2025?

Gold is experiencing a technical correction, not a fundamental reversal, according to UBS analysts. The 11% pullback from October's $4,381 peak stems from profit-taking after the 47% year-to-date rally, a stronger U.S. Dollar Index reaching mid-2024 highs, and Federal Reserve officials hinting at "higher for longer" rates.

How high can gold price go in 2026?

Gold price forecasts for 2026 range from $4,100 to $5,600 per ounce across major institutions. Goldman Sachs projects $5,055 by Q4 2026, Bank of America targets $5,000 (averaging $4,400), UBS forecasts $4,200 baseline with $4,700 upside scenario, and ING expects $4,100 in Q1 2026. Technical analysis using Fibonacci extensions suggests potential for $5,000-$5,600, representing over 40% upside from current levels.

What is driving gold price predictions higher?

Multiple structural factors support bullish forecasts: central banks purchasing 760 tonnes annually in 2025-2026 (nearly double pre-2022 averages), record ETF inflows of 360 tonnes driving institutional demand, Federal Reserve rate cuts reducing opportunity cost of non-yielding gold, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

Should I buy gold during this correction?

Yes. Major institutions view current levels as buying opportunities rather than warning signals. UBS explicitly stated "We like to buy the dip in gold," recommending mid-single-digit portfolio allocation (3-7%). ING's Ewa Manthey wrote that "any further weakness likely to attract renewed interest from both retail and institutional buyers".

Is the gold rally over or just pausing?

The rally is pausing, not over, according to institutional consensus. UBS titled their November 3 research note "The gold correction is technical and temporary". ING stated: "We view the correction as healthy rather than a trend reversal". Goldman Sachs expects "de-risking and profit taking by investors to be met by dip buying from other segments of demand including central banks and other physical buyers, ultimately keeping reversals relatively shallow".

How does gold compare to other investments right now?

Gold has gained 47-49% year-to-date through early November despite the recent correction, outperforming most traditional asset classes. The precious metal's low correlation with equities and bonds provides diversification benefits, especially during market stress periods.