• Front-loading rate cuts before it's clear inflation won't be persistent could be a mistake
  • I am still concerned about inflation
  • If rates were excessively restrictive, I would expect a drag on business investment but it's been surprisingly strong
  • Still relatively optimistic that tariffs won't drive up inflation broadly and rates can come down
  • Fed policy has been mildly, moderately restrictive
  • Normally would think that a drop in immigration would drive up inflation

Goolsbee and Miran have been all over the newswires lately.