Fed FOMC rate cut expectations (Statement due on Wednesday 17 September 2025 at 2pm US Eastern time, 1800 GMT).

Most banks lean toward a 25 bps trim, but a couple of houses see the Fed moving faster with a 50 bps cut.

25 bps cut (consensus view):

  • BMO

  • Barclays

  • CIBC

  • Goldman Sachs

  • JPMorgan

  • Morgan Stanley

  • Nomura

  • RBC

  • Scotiabank

  • Wells Fargo

50 bps cut (more aggressive):

  • Standard Chartered

  • Société Générale

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A 25 bps cut is largely priced in and may not move markets much unless guidance shifts.

A 50 bps cut, however, would likely spark USD weakness, a Treasury rally, and could fuel a risk-on move in equities and gold.

Source: Investing Live