The EURUSD and the GBPUSD are little changed to start the trading day. The USDJPY is stretching higher. In the video above, I kickstart the US/NA session with a technical look at those 3 major currency pairs.

IN other news to kickstart the day:

  • Trump and Putin are scheduled to speak on today between 1300 and 1500 GMT, with the Kremlin stating that there are numerous topics to discuss. This follows last week's visit by U.S. envoy Witkoff to Moscow, who described the upcoming conversation as "really good and positive." Trump has confirmed the call and hinted at a possible announcement regarding Russia-Ukraine talks. The discussion is expected to focus on a proposed 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, as Trump looks to engage Putin on the matter.
  • In Germany the market is awaiting the major fiscal policy reform vote. The reform debt policies would allow higher defense spending and create a €500 billion ($548 billion) infrastructure and climate fund. The proposal, backed by the CDU-CSU and SPD, seeks to exempt defense and infrastructure-related loans from the debt brake, while also granting more flexibility to Germany’s states. A two-thirds majority is required for the package to pass, and the Bundesrat must also approve it on Friday.
  • In the US,. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that all options remain open regarding China investments, including blocking outbound investments if necessary. On tariffs, he confirmed that on April 2, tariff numbers will be assigned to each country, with some facing lower tariffs while others may see stacked tariffs on steel and aluminum. Reciprocal tariffs will not automatically amount to a combined 25%, and 15% of countries will bear the bulk of tariff impacts. Bessent dismissed concerns about a potential recession, emphasizing that the U.S. economy remains strong. He also noted that Trump has asked him to reconsider the U.S. sanctions regime, arguing that previous policies were undermining the dollar’s reserve status, and suggested that the U.S. could intensify sanctions against Russia if needed.
  • In Japan, a Bloomberg survey of 52 economists unanimously expects the Bank of Japan to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% during its policy meeting on Wednesday, March 19, 2025. The decision comes amid growing concerns over global economic growth, fueled by escalating trade tensions. The focus will be on Governor Ueda’s press conference, where markets will look for any signals regarding the timing of the next rate move. However, Ueda is expected to emphasize that there is no rush to raise rates, echoing his recent concerns about the trajectory of the global economy.
  • Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter emphasized that the RBA is closely monitoring U.S. policy settings and their potential impact on Australian inflation. Speaking in Sydney, she highlighted that the RBA board remains more cautious than the market regarding future rate cuts, as reflected in its February statement. She noted that the rebound in household consumption in the December quarter appears to be more than just a temporary uptick. Hunter also stressed that the link between the RBA’s forecasts and policy decisions is not automatic, acknowledging the inherent risks and uncertainties surrounding economic projections. The AUDUSD is up and down in trading today and currently down -0.30%. Yeaterday, the price extended above the 200 day MA for the first time since October 2024. That MA comes in at 0.63515.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD techncals

The German ZEW survey where the expectations index jumped to a new cycle high amid the German fiscal boost and the ongoing ECB monetary easing.

In the US session it is still one-day from the Fed decision on Wednesday at 2 PM ET. Today US housing starts (1.380M) and Building permits will be released at 8;30 AM ET, along with the Import and export price data (est -0.1% adn -0.2% MoM respectively). Canada CPI will also be released at 8:30 AM (est 0.6% MoM and 2.2% YoY). At 9:15 AM ET, US industrial production (estimate 0.2%), and capacity utilization (estimate 77.8%) will be released. At 1 PM, the US treasury will auction off 20 year bonds.

A snapshot of the US stocks market is showing lower levels to start the day

  • Dow industrial average -57 points
  • S&P index -12.37 point
  • NASDAQ index -75.24 points.

In the European equity markets, indices are higher ahead of the German vote:

  • German Dax +1.19%
  • France's CAC +0.57%
  • UK's FTSE 100 +0.26%
  • Spain's Ibex +1.05%
  • Italy's FTSE MIB was 1.27%

In the US debt market, yields are mixed:

  • 2- year 4.046%, -0.7 basis points
  • 5-year 4.101%, +0.6 basis points
  • 10 year 4.321%, +1.6 basis points
  • 30 year 4.66%, +2.8 basis points

in other markets:

  • Crude oil is trading up $0.66 or 0.98% at $68.24
  • Gold is trading up $29 at $3030.72
  • Bitcoin is trading lower by $1400 and $82,642
Source: Forex Live