• Labor market changes are mostly from immigration changes
  • Changes in employment are much more about immigration changes
  • "I don't think we can say" that policy no longer warrants a restrictive policy setting
  • We were right to wait previously
  • No widespread support for 50 bps today
  • Change in balance of risks suggests need to move in direction of neutral
  • You can think of this as a risk-management cut

The market hasn't liked the lack of clear dovish signals. There is a big turn lower in the S&P 500, now down 34 points, or 0.5%.