The GBP/JPY steadies on Friday, snapping a four-day losing streak after sliding to its lowest level since August 7 on Thursday. At the time of writing, the cross is holding firm near the 198.00 handle, easing back from an intraday high around 198.55.
Gold (XAU/USD) gains ground above $3,850 on Friday, trading around $3,875 during the American session, up nearly 0.50% on the day. The metal has recovered from an intraday low near $3,838, finding fresh bids as the US Dollar (USD) eases following Thursday’s modest rebound.
The Euro (EUR) is up a modest 0.2% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10 currencies as we head into Friday’s NA session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 7.1260/7.1410. In the longer run, for the time being, USD is likely to trade in a range between 7.1000 and 7.1480, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 146.70 and 147.70. In the longer run, sharp declines appear excessive, but USD could drop to 146.30. The odds for a continued decline below this level are not high, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
LDP party will vote to select its leader on Sat. It is a full-spec vote, meaning that the election is conducted in its complete format. Each of the LDP's 295 Diet members will cast a vote, and another 295 votes will be determined based on ballots of rank-and-file members (about 1.1mio of them).
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) appears to have entered a sideways-trading phase and is likely to trade between 0.5790 and 0.5830. In the longer run, NZD has likely moved into a 0.5770/0.5865 range-trading phase, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Traded volatility is falling across financial markets. Investors have settled into the view that the Fed will likely cut rates twice more this year and probably another 50bp in 2026.
USD/JPY failed to hold above 150 and slipped below its 200-day moving average, with focus now shifting to support at 146.20/145.40. A break lower could open the door to further downside, Société Générale's FX analysts note.
The softened underlying suggests Pound Sterling (GBP) may retest the 1.3400 level; a continued decline below this level is unlikely. In the longer run, GBP is likely to trade in a range between 1.3360 and 1.3525, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The US government shutdown adds another layer of data and market uncertainty. Past shutdowns have often coincided with demand for safe haven proxy including gold while the USD broadly traded softer though outcomes can vary with duration of shutdown.
There has no significant shift in either downward or upward momentum; Euro (EUR) is likely to trade in a range of 1.1690/1.1750. In the longer run, EUR is likely to trade between 1.1675 and 1.1790 for the time being, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
EUR/USD remains glued to the 1.1700 area. Three-month traded volatility has dropped to its lowest level since last November, at 6.60%, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Silver price (XAG/USD) hovers near the new 14-year high of $48.05 reached in the previous session, trading around $47.10 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday.
The AUD/JPY cross gains momentum to near 97.40 during the early European session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) softens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) amid the political uncertainty in Japan.
EUR/JPY gains ground after a neutral day, trading around 173.10 during the Asian hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a revival of bullish bias as the currency cross rebounded toward the ascending channel pattern.
BOJ Governor Ueda said rate hikes will continue if forecasts hold, but warned tariffs and global risks cloud the outlook. He highlighted moderating growth, slower U.S. job gains, and fragile wage momentum, while stressing the need to maintain accommodative support for Japan’s economy.
A U.S.-U.A.E. deal to deliver Nvidia AI chips has stalled, with Emirati investments in the U.S. still pending. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has tied export approval to those commitments, while security concerns over the U.A.E.’s China ties add to the delay.
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