TradeCompass for Crude Oil Futures – March 5, 2025

Current Market Overview for CL!

  • Crude oil futures are trading at $66.51, after bottoming out at $65.29 earlier today.
  • This represents a $1.22 rally, or 1.87%, from the intraday low.
  • Key reference points:
    • Yesterday’s VWAP: $66.63
    • Yesterday’s Value Area High (VAH): $66.81
    • Today’s Low: $65.29 (just $0.07 above the recent 5-day low)
Oil Futures Analysis with tradeCompass
Oil Futures Analysis with tradeCompass

Market Context for Crude Oil Futures – Bearish Phase with Potential Trading Range

  • Larger Trend: Crude oil futures have been in a deep decline, down 19.25% over 33 trading days (Jan 15 - Mar 5).
  • Recent Price Action:
    • The market has found temporary stability near $65.29, close to the multi-day low.
    • Reversal vs. Trading Range? Often, after sharp declines, a price range forms before any possible sustained rebound.
    • Today’s ~2% rally in 8 hours suggests a reaction bounce, but does not confirm a full reversal yet.

Bearish Trade Plan for Crude Oil Futures – Selling into Resistance (a short term trade)

A contrarian short trade is considered at resistance levels, as traders who bought the dip might take profits after a 2.3% bounce.

Key Short Zone: $66.61 - $66.88

  • Bottom of the Zone: $66.61 (Yesterday’s VWAP).
  • Top of the Zone: $66.88 (High Volume Node near yesterday’s VAH).
  • Entry Consideration: Some traders wait for price to cross above $66.81 (yesterday’s VAH) and then drop below it before shorting.

Partial Profit Targets for a Short on Crude Oil Futures

  1. $66.64 – Quick first profit, aligns with yesterday’s VWAP.
  2. $66.40 – Just above today’s Value Area High (VAH).
  3. $66.23 – POC of today, strong liquidity area.
  4. $66.06 – Just above yesterday’s POC, another key volume cluster.
  5. $65.97 – Close to today’s VWAP at $65.90.
  6. $65.69 – Today’s Value Area Low (VAL), another liquidity test.
  7. $65.23 – Possible stop hunt below today’s low and another historical level.

📌 Why so many profit-taking levels?

  • In a trading range, price often reacts at multiple liquidity levels.
  • A structured exit plan increases adaptability to market conditions.

Bullish Trade Plan – If Crude Oil Futures Price Holds Above $67.08

If price breaks and sustains above $67.08, this could signal a stronger bullish move.

Bullish Targets for CL!

  1. $67.49 – Second Upper Standard Deviation of Yesterday’s VWAP.
  2. $67.95 – Third Upper Standard Deviation + Taking out yesterday’s high.
  3. $67.98 – Just below the Value Area High (VAH) of March 4.
  4. $69.06 – Below the VWAP of March 3 (Swing target).
  5. $69.57 – Below the VAH of March 3 (Extended swing target).

TradeCompass Orientation on Today's Oil Price Analysis

  • This analysis doesn’t tell you whether to be bullish or bearish—it maps key decision zones.
  • If you lean bearish, consider shorting within $66.61 - $66.88 and managing exits carefully.
  • If bullish momentum builds, watch for sustained price action above $67.08 for further upside.
  • Your strategy, timeframe, and risk tolerance will determine how you trade these zones.

📌 Stay flexible, manage risk, and trade smart. This is not financial advice and you need to do your own research. Visit ForexLive.com for additional views.

Source: Forex Live