• Inflation to overshoot target by 1 pp
  • It will take 2-3 years to get back to target
  • Could be a decade of Fed overshooting target
  • Does not put high odds on labor market downturn

She's hawkish but that's no surprise.

Given the drop in equity markets today, the odds of a December cut are up to 71%, which is higher than at the start of the week despite the ADP and ISM services data.